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Marcos Jr treads fine line with China as Philippines deepens US, Japan ties




Manila, Philippines – Against a backdrop of rising tension in the South China Sea between Beijing and Manila, the leaders of Japan, the Philippines and the United States have forged an unprecedented level of cooperation to counter China.

But while US President Joe Biden and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida have stressed the security aspects of their cooperation, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has highlighted its potential economic rewards, touting the partnership with promised investments of some $100bn as a friendship with benefits. At the televised opening of the summit on April 11, Biden told the other two leaders: “I want to be clear. The United States’ defence commitments to Japan and the Philippines are ironclad. Any attack on Philippine aircraft, vessels or armed forces in the South China Sea will invoke our Mutual Defence Treaty.”

Only afterwards did Biden discuss how the US government would help the Philippines develop key economic areas such as its semiconductor supply chain, and telecommunications and critical infrastructure including ports, railways and agriculture.

In Manila, though, the Presidential Communications Office downplayed the security aspect of the concluded summit, which had expressed “serious concerns  about the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) dangerous and aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea”.

Instead, its news releases dwelt on US and Japan’s expressions of a “strong commitment of support for the economic prosperity of the Philippines”.

Financial analysts told Al Jazeera that while Washington has intertwined its promised economic development with Manila’s security commitments, Manila had chosen to highlight the economic gains to mask a sobering reality – that the country could be dragged into a military conflict with China.

“Marcos needs to sell [this] to Filipinos,” financial analyst Jonathan Ravelas told Al Jazeera on Friday. “This is bitter medicine but I’m sugarcoating it, so it’s easily digestible,” Ravelas explained of the president’s approach. Besides, if he focused on the security angle, “he might p*** off China,” added the managing director of e-Management for business and marketing services and retired chief market strategist of the Philippines’ largest bank, BDO.


Semiconductor push

Ravelas argues that Marcos Jr, like previous presidents, is keen to turn the country into a manufacturing and logistics hub. “We are geographically located to be part of the supply chain in ASEAN,” being within only three hours by air from regional countries Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia, he noted.

The summit announced the formation of the first-ever Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment corridor in the Asia Pacific, called the Luzon Economic Corridor. It will connect Manila to three sprawling areas in the country’s biggest island, Luzon, which can host manufacturers and other large business ventures: the US’s former Subic naval base, the former Clark airbase and Batangas province.

Ravelas noted that US semiconductor manufacturers were looking to diversify their locations and the young workforce made the Philippines a viable alternative.

The US, noted political economist Sonny Africa, has a military agenda and an economic agenda. “In both, the Philippines apparently plays an important part,” Africa, executive director of the socioeconomic think tank, Ibon Foundation,

“Presumably, the alliance will be played up to have both security benefits and economic benefits. While it’s somewhat clear that the country plays a role in security-related moves against China, we feel the alliance is also serious in exploring the Philippines’ role in, for instance, being a location for segments of the semiconductor production, but also as a source of nickel which is essential for so much renewable energy technology. This is the direction of the US to attain domestic energy security,” he said.

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